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Figure 1a: Models predict rapid initial warming in response to a forcing. The current el Niño, as Bob Tisdale’s distinguished series of reports here demonstrates, is at least as big as the Great el Niño of 1998.The RSS temperature record is beginning to reflect its magnitude.The hiatus period of 18 years 9 months is the farthest back one can go in the RSS satellite temperature record and still show a sub-zero trend.The start date is not cherry-picked: it is calculated. One-third of Man’s entire influence on climate since the Industrial Revolution has occurred since February 1997.Yet the 225 months since then show no global warming at all.The graph of Roe’s model output shows that the initial expected response to a forcing is supposed to be an immediate and rapid warming.But, despite the very substantial forcings in the 18 years 9 months since February 1997, not a flicker of warming has resulted. At the Heartland and Philip Foster events in Paris, I shall reveal in detail the three serious errors that have led the models to over-predict warming so grossly.
It is worth understanding just how surprised the modelers ought to be by the persistence of the Pause.The trend lines measure what has occurred: they do not predict what will occur.The Pause – politically useful though it may be to all who wish that the “official” scientific community would remember its duty of skepticism – is far less important than the growing discrepancy between the predictions of the general-circulation models and observed reality.The fact of a long Pause is an indication of the widening discrepancy between prediction and reality in the temperature record.The satellite datasets are arguably less unreliable than other datasets in that they show the 1998 Great El Niño more clearly than all other datasets.